It's Frog Time!

Yep, everyone's favorite heart attack inducing amphibian swordsman is back! And he's not causing heart attacks today.....because he's on his way to his largest victory ever! To be fair, he's only up 3300 votes right now.....but by Frog standards, this is a landslide. Frog won't be needing to pull off a comeback in the last hour today!

I'm one of 72 people with 32 points right now. We are tied for 5th sitewide, and so 46 of us are on the leaderboard....I made some changes late in the bracket-making period, so I'm still not up there. Hopefully, I will be tonight (I think but am not sure that everyone with 32 now who has Ganon > Frog will be on the leaderboard tonight). If not tonight, I need to get on the leaderboard tomorrow night, because I have Scorpion > Balthier Monday, and that seems really unlikely to me right now....Gordon Freeman should take second.

Ganondorf is handily beating Frog currently for first.....but next round, Samus will in the poll. Can Frog overcome Ganon through the power of Nintendo SFF? And, if he does, can he beat Nightmare too? Well, we know what happens if it's close.....Frog builds an impressive lead overnight only to completely collapse with the day vote. And then, as we reach the last hour.....it's time for everyone to blare Frog's Theme as he pulls off a miraculous comeback!

Ganondorf is the big favorite here, and probably deservedly so. But can Frog (or Nightmare) pull it off? I think Nightmare has a chance, but don't particularly care if he beats Ganon, so I'll look at Frog's chances. How would other Chrono Trigger characters fare here?

Crono would probably take first due to Samus/Ganon SFF- at worst he gets second, a little behind Samus a way ahead of Ganon. Magus? Magus beat Ganon outright before, once upon a time we call 2003.....I know Magus/Ganon wouldn't be close at all now, but I can't see Ganon winning that one with the majority of his votes being taken away by Samus. But Frog is weaker than Magus.....yes, Frog has looked much better recently, but that's only because Frog always comes through and pulls off miraculous wins, while Magus keeps underperforming. But looking at their matches objectively, Magus is still stronger.

Frog, of course, has the clutch factor- if the match is close, you can count on Frog to win. So- will Frog/Ganon/Nightmare be close? Frog got around 27% of the Frog/Samus votes last year. Ganon got 40% against Samus directly back in 2005. Assuming those hold, and adding Ganon to Samus does nothing to the total strength of Nintendo in the poll (that is, Frog gets the same percentage against Samus or in a 3-way poll with Samus/Ganon), Ganon gets 40% of the 73% Samus/Ganon get. That gives him....29%. That's still above Frog, and Ganon probably adds a little more than nothing to Samus- only a little, but not quite zero. 29% is, however, below the 30% that Frog put up on Samus directly back in 2005.

Those stats don't really look good for Frog, but he may have been hurt a little by sharing some fanbase with Axel- and he may be a little stronger this year thanks to hype for CTDS (CT will be a lot stronger next year after it comes out!). He's impressing relative to KOS-MOS right now, a good sign. Nintendo SFF also works in strange ways, so it's possible Samus/Ganon would turn out quite differently from how it did back in 2005. That was a breakthrough year for the Nintendo villains, after all, with both Ganondorf and Bowser impressing. So, should Ganon be the favorite over Frog? Yes. Is there a chance it will be close? Yes. If it is close, can Frog win? Absolutely.

What of Nightmare? He put up 30% on Samus yesterday (30% of Samus/Nightmare votes anyway). That means he should probably also be favored over Frog next round. The most likely outcome is that Frog ends up in last....but we can hope, and we can play Frog's Theme to build up our hope!

Tomorrow's match is Vincent vs. Falco vs. GlaDOS vs. Wander. Vincent > Falco is the obvious result, but I'm surprised at how low people's expectations are for Falco. I mean, people expected Wario to beat Zack, some chose Lucario to get through division 1 with Link, and they don't think Falco have any strength? Fox has been heavily, heavily, underrated for years (I think he's at Kirby's level!....indirectly, at least), and while Falco isn't Fox, he should be stronger than Marth, because he's probably almost as popular as Marth in SSBM, and Star Fox is way way bigger than Fire Emblem 1. Melee > Brawl in strength, and Falco is going to prove it tomorrow by destroying GlaDOS completely (and yes, Vincent will still destroy him, but there's only 3 Nintendo characters Vincent wouldn't beat).

Prediction:

Vincent 52%
Falco 27.5%
GlaDOS 13.5%
Wander 7%

The 2008 60% Club
Link

The 50% Club
Link
Samus Aran

The 40% Club
Link
Samus Aran
Bowser
Zack Fair
Megaman X
Altair
Ganondorf
Mario