Saturday, September 27, 2008

It's Frog Time!

Yep, everyone's favorite heart attack inducing amphibian swordsman is back! And he's not causing heart attacks today.....because he's on his way to his largest victory ever! To be fair, he's only up 3300 votes right now.....but by Frog standards, this is a landslide. Frog won't be needing to pull off a comeback in the last hour today!

I'm one of 72 people with 32 points right now. We are tied for 5th sitewide, and so 46 of us are on the leaderboard....I made some changes late in the bracket-making period, so I'm still not up there. Hopefully, I will be tonight (I think but am not sure that everyone with 32 now who has Ganon > Frog will be on the leaderboard tonight). If not tonight, I need to get on the leaderboard tomorrow night, because I have Scorpion > Balthier Monday, and that seems really unlikely to me right now....Gordon Freeman should take second.

Ganondorf is handily beating Frog currently for first.....but next round, Samus will in the poll. Can Frog overcome Ganon through the power of Nintendo SFF? And, if he does, can he beat Nightmare too? Well, we know what happens if it's close.....Frog builds an impressive lead overnight only to completely collapse with the day vote. And then, as we reach the last hour.....it's time for everyone to blare Frog's Theme as he pulls off a miraculous comeback!

Ganondorf is the big favorite here, and probably deservedly so. But can Frog (or Nightmare) pull it off? I think Nightmare has a chance, but don't particularly care if he beats Ganon, so I'll look at Frog's chances. How would other Chrono Trigger characters fare here?

Crono would probably take first due to Samus/Ganon SFF- at worst he gets second, a little behind Samus a way ahead of Ganon. Magus? Magus beat Ganon outright before, once upon a time we call 2003.....I know Magus/Ganon wouldn't be close at all now, but I can't see Ganon winning that one with the majority of his votes being taken away by Samus. But Frog is weaker than Magus.....yes, Frog has looked much better recently, but that's only because Frog always comes through and pulls off miraculous wins, while Magus keeps underperforming. But looking at their matches objectively, Magus is still stronger.

Frog, of course, has the clutch factor- if the match is close, you can count on Frog to win. So- will Frog/Ganon/Nightmare be close? Frog got around 27% of the Frog/Samus votes last year. Ganon got 40% against Samus directly back in 2005. Assuming those hold, and adding Ganon to Samus does nothing to the total strength of Nintendo in the poll (that is, Frog gets the same percentage against Samus or in a 3-way poll with Samus/Ganon), Ganon gets 40% of the 73% Samus/Ganon get. That gives him....29%. That's still above Frog, and Ganon probably adds a little more than nothing to Samus- only a little, but not quite zero. 29% is, however, below the 30% that Frog put up on Samus directly back in 2005.

Those stats don't really look good for Frog, but he may have been hurt a little by sharing some fanbase with Axel- and he may be a little stronger this year thanks to hype for CTDS (CT will be a lot stronger next year after it comes out!). He's impressing relative to KOS-MOS right now, a good sign. Nintendo SFF also works in strange ways, so it's possible Samus/Ganon would turn out quite differently from how it did back in 2005. That was a breakthrough year for the Nintendo villains, after all, with both Ganondorf and Bowser impressing. So, should Ganon be the favorite over Frog? Yes. Is there a chance it will be close? Yes. If it is close, can Frog win? Absolutely.

What of Nightmare? He put up 30% on Samus yesterday (30% of Samus/Nightmare votes anyway). That means he should probably also be favored over Frog next round. The most likely outcome is that Frog ends up in last....but we can hope, and we can play Frog's Theme to build up our hope!

Tomorrow's match is Vincent vs. Falco vs. GlaDOS vs. Wander. Vincent > Falco is the obvious result, but I'm surprised at how low people's expectations are for Falco. I mean, people expected Wario to beat Zack, some chose Lucario to get through division 1 with Link, and they don't think Falco have any strength? Fox has been heavily, heavily, underrated for years (I think he's at Kirby's level!....indirectly, at least), and while Falco isn't Fox, he should be stronger than Marth, because he's probably almost as popular as Marth in SSBM, and Star Fox is way way bigger than Fire Emblem 1. Melee > Brawl in strength, and Falco is going to prove it tomorrow by destroying GlaDOS completely (and yes, Vincent will still destroy him, but there's only 3 Nintendo characters Vincent wouldn't beat).

Prediction:

Vincent 52%
Falco 27.5%
GlaDOS 13.5%
Wander 7%

The 2008 60% Club
Link

The 50% Club
Link
Samus Aran

The 40% Club
Link
Samus Aran
Bowser
Zack Fair
Megaman X
Altair
Ganondorf
Mario

Tuesday, September 23, 2008

Workload Picking Up

It's now the 4th week of school, and as expected, the workload is picking up. I have a 4-5 page essay due on Thursday for the Early Middle Ages- I will be writing on the Rule of St. Benedict, which is quite an interesting read- I know I could never have been a Coenobitic (monastic) monk! Way too many rules, getting up at 2 AM every night, a vegetarian diet, rarely leaving the monastery, and worst of all, strict obedience to the abbot and rejection of one's own will....

Fortunately, this week my math homework has been much easier than last week- I have only 2 problems left, which should be the hardest ones of the set, but none of the previous problems have been hard. Shockingly, I managed to complete all but 2 problems before the last day before it is due! That's....well....I don't remember the last time I've done that- certainly not in college- maybe never! I suppose it's because Probability is actually quite fun, so it feels good to complete the problems.

I had a 5-day hiatus on KGS, which I ended today with a loss. I feel I was winning, but I blundered towards the end of the mid-game, making it close, and then I blundered again in the endgame, giving my opponent the win by resignation.

I'm doing well (relatively speaking) in the contest with 16 out of 20 points as of now, good enough to put me in a tie for 204th place with 716 other people, out of a total of 40,000+ brackets. I'm getting 4 more points today with Bowser > Phoenix, and I'm guessing Phoenix wasn't too popular a pick outside the Contest Board, although he was the overwhelming favorite to get second on the board. Hopefully this means I'll be in a tie for a position within the top 100 or even top 50 tomorrow- with maybe 100-200 people- hopefully. In the Guru Contest, I'll be tied for 1st with 12 other people.

Tomorrow's match is Mario vs. Zelda vs. Knuckles vs. Fei. There are a lot of differing opinions on this one- Zelda is stronger than Knuckles, but should be hurt worse by SFF from Mario, since they are both Nintendo characters. I had Knuckles for a long time, but changed to Zelda towards the end of the bracket-making period, because she's quite a bit stronger than Knux normally, and I don't think she'll suffer much more than he will from SFF. I'm feeling pretty good about this, because Knux only managed 27% last year against Yoshi, Rikku, and Vaan- with Mario here, Knux should go to 20% or lower, and I think Zelda can take in more than that. Of the other 12 gurus who will have 20 points after today, only 3 have Mario > Zelda for tomorrow, so I'll be in a 4-way tie for first if Zelda comes through. There's an outside chance I might be able to get onto the site-wide leaderboard on Thursday also- if a lot of people chose Knuckles.

Edit/Update: I'm done with this week's math homework! Those two problems only took about half an hour.

Wednesday, September 17, 2008

Contest Tonight!

It's finally time! The Great Gamefaqs Character Battle VII starts tonight! As of this writing, we are about 6 hours away from bracket lockdown, and 8 hours away from the first match starting! We have a newcomer with a lot of potential: Zack from Final Fantasy VII. If you don't know who Zack is, or didn't know before the bracket came out, well- that's why Zack has a very large range of potential strengths- because many people don't know who he is, but he's from FINAL FANTASY VII. It's the winner of the Best Game Ever Contest on Gamefaqs, and the winner of the Top 100 Games List- nothing from FFVII has ever been weak.

Zack, however, is not a playable character, and only appears briefly in the game....but on the other hand, he's a copy of Cloud! For the storyline, he is very important- probably behind only Cloud, Sephiroth, and Aeris. Zack has recently has had his own game, Crisis Core- unfortunately it is for PSP......so how strong is Zack? If he's at say, Aeris level, he takes first in this match easily and cruises to the quarterfinals where he gives Mario a run for his money thanks to double SFF with Link and Megaman X. If he's at Vincent level, he easily takes second in that quarterfinals match above Mario. But, it's highly unlikely Zack is that strong....and he's probably not at Aeris level either. So how strong is he? We'll know tonight.

The other main contender for first in tonight/tomorrow's match is Wario- a copy of Mario! So a copy of Cloud vs. a copy of Mario.....if it comes down to that, Zack wins, easily. But Wario is much more well known than Zack, having appeared in many many games, while Zack only appears in a few flashbacks in FFVII and now in Crisis Core (and the movie Advent Children). But....no one likes Wario. "No one" is I suppose not true, but I think you'd agree that most Nintendo fans do not like Wario. I'm counting on FFVII fans liking Zack more, relatively.

So my prediction is a fairly comfortable win for Zack, with Wario following him in second. Cecil is from FFIV, and we saw him get destroyed by Kirby in 2005- yeah, he's had a remake of his game, but still, he was pathetic fodder last time. My prediction:

Zack Fair: 36%
Wario: 32%
Cecil Harvey: 24%
Jade Curtiss: 8%

I was going to talk about math, specifically how hard math homework is, and I was thinking primarily about math almost all yesterday afternoon and evening, and up to about 45 minutes ago, but since class ended today, I've at last shifted attention to the contest. So....I'll put off talking about classes until a later date. 8 hours until contest time!

Sunday, September 14, 2008

My New Favorite Book

Yes, the Kite Runner is THAT good. I started it Tuesday night, and finished it late Wednesday night. It is incredibly beautiful, hopeful, and sad- it can make you want to cry. The pace of the storytelling is just right- it flows quickly and smoothly from one time to another, and keeps you immersed in the story.

I've been thinking quite a bit lately about my future plans, and a clearer picture (though still very foggy) of what majors/classes I am going to take is coming into focus. The tentative plan is to pursue a PhD in Economics- this leaves open the option of taking a job after graduation instead of going to grad school if that seems more desirable then, or if grad school admissions don't work out. Econ PhD admissions are very very competitive, and I sort of feel that if I don't get into, say, a top 20 program, I'd rather just try to find a job directly out of undergrad. Of course, it all depends on what options I end up having senior year, but pursuing the PhD leaves all options open.

That means taking the theory track of the major (as previously planned), and it means taking a fair deal of math (exactly how much math to take is something I've been very indecisive on). Fortunately, math this semester has been much more enjoyable so far than in past semesters, so perhaps I will like the more higher-level math classes. I know that stuff like Calc 3 and Linear Algebra is supposed to be very different from more advanced, and usually proof-based, classes such as Real Analysis. Right now Theory of Probability is somewhere between- more theory than before, but still more focused on problem solving than proofs. Set theory I've found enjoyable thus far (not that I have seen very much of it), but this is important, because how much I enjoy doing something is more important than how difficult it is, usually, in terms of my success in that thing.

So, to pursue an Econ PhD, realistically, I think, I need to take at least Real Analysis. They say it's recommended but not required, but when you have 5% acceptance rates, you may as well treat it as a requirement. To get a joint major in Econ + Math, I'd need to take Analysis II, plus two more math electives from a list. Perhaps Ordinary Differential Equations for one of them, and a course on formal logic for the other? I'm not sure, but I think Logic would also count toward a Philosophy minor....Some other possibilities are Combinatorics, Transformations and Geometries, and Number Theory. If it turns about after taking a few more classes that I'm (a lot) better at math than I think, I can try Topology, which has always looked fascinating to me, except that it's supposed to be extremely difficult and advanced.

So, I suppose it's still undecided how much math I will take- it depends heavily on what grades I get in my current and upcoming math classes, and on how much I enjoy them. But I'm planning for at least taking Real Analysis, probably next fall, maybe next semester, if I feel exceptionally brave. As far the Econ PhD goes, it appears the more math, the better.

As for Econ courses, I have 5 more core courses to take, of which I will take Math for Economists and Analytical Stats next semester, (intermediate) Microeconomics and Econometrics fall of next year, and (intermediate) Macroeconomics spring 2010. In addition, I need 4 electives: the course I really want to take is Strategic Decision Theory (Game Theory). I want to pursue honors in Econ, so that will add 1 to the number of classes needed- a senior thesis.

Anyway, I just figured out a math proof on my homework; a fairly easy one, but nonetheless, this makes me feel good. That is why I decided to finish this post now, which I started yesterday.

Wednesday, September 10, 2008

Economics is Fun!

Yes, this year's classes are great! Being (well, almost) done with my required MAP classes, and having much more choice with course selection has resulted in my being in really interesting classes.

As said before, my Econ professor is really funny and good at explaining things, and I've really liked the subject matter so far (equilibrium, rational choices, etc). Econ theory is interesting to me- I'm fascinated by choices- whether they exist, how, why, they are made, etc.- the practical/business stuff is, honestly, boring, but fortunately this class (and my track in the major) is about the theory. Surprisingly, I can actually understand my math professor this year! Probability looks like it will be the hardest class for me, however- it will be a lot lot lot of work.


I started reading the Kite Runner last night. So far it is really, really, good. I'm not sure how much of it is autobiography, and how much is fiction. The narrator's childhood friend tells him in the story when they were kids, that the narrator would become a world-famous writer- he was right, and the author wasn't bragging by including (or inventing?) the scene.

And, thank you everyone for the comments.

Sunday, September 7, 2008

Hope is a Strategy

This is somewhat long, and it sort of became an attempt at political speechwriting while I was writing it.

Rudy Giuliani said at the RNC, "change is not a destination and hope is not a strategy." Well, that quote is witty and thought-provoking, and I profoundly disagree with it. Hope is very real, and very powerful- hope has done more for this country than its government has ever done, under any administration. Without the people's hope in themselves, in the country, in the future, we would never have become such a great nation. Republicans ought to know this- hope is why we all believe in personal liberty (and thus, responsibility, because a choice without consequences is no choice at all). Hope is why we believe in small government; it is why we believe in low taxes- we believe in the people to choose for themselves. We believe in humanity and hope for the bright future- and so we do not need an inefficient government to tell us how to live.

Hope is sustenance to freedom- those who live in fear are not free- they are slaves to what they fear, and worse, to fear itself. Hope is what drives the free onward, even when it is dark, because the hopeful can see the light in the future. Faith, hope, and love- these are the three virtues Paul praises above all others in 1st Corinthians, and they are inextricably linked to each other and to freedom. For it is those who have faith in the future who hope, those who put their hope in good who love, those who love who can see the future shining in the distance! Fear has no hold on such free people, who can see the light, who know the shadow is only transient. Such free people can boldly make choices, neither according to the command of fear nor with the lack of will that accompanies conformity to others and to well-rehearsed habit.

Therefore, we say: hope is our strategy. It is not, and should not be, our only strategy, but it is one that is absolutely essential and fundamental. For the hopes of the free are powerful- without the best of plans would be empty and hollow, lacking the will to apply them. Let us therefore add intelligence and foresight to our hope, and so let us move forward to a bright future. We believe in freedom, we believe in the good in the heart of each person, we believe in love, and on the foundation of our cherished past, we believe that we can, and we will, together build a future in which freedom will prosper.

Thursday, September 4, 2008

Classes

This semester's classes look like they will be very interesting. Two of them involve math heavily, though, meaning a lot of work for me. Apparently we will be doing math without numbers in Intro to Economic Analysis, which is intimidating but hopefully will be fun. The professor is quite funny; he repeatedly emphasized the importance of math in this class and the rest of the theory track of the Economics major (NYU has two tracks: policy and theory, with theory having more math and abstract theory). He said that those who enjoy doing math tend to like the class and the rest of the (harder, and therefore better) theory track, and those who don't should find another major. So....we shall see if I enjoy numberless math!

Theory of Probability is a math class, and from a show of hands, 2/3 or so of the class are math majors. That is intimidating....I can't compete with math majors.....it will be hard to get a good grade here. Of the remaining 1/3 of the class, most are finance or economics majors. Well, I'll be doing a lot of math this semester.....wish me luck.

Tuesday, September 2, 2008

Playing......Territorially?

Today I played a 2k, and tried out playing territorially, instead of going for influence. Surprisingly, I won! I think it was fairly close, but he resigned....I think he may have underestimated how bad I am at endgame, because I thought it was very close. Here's the final position. What do you think? Should he have resigned? (I played black).

In other news, my first class went very well today- the professor is a good speaker, and the subject material (Early Middle Ages) is fascinating. There is a weekly recitation section led by a TA in addition to the two lectures a week, but surprisingly the professor intends to do all the grading himself. I've never had a professor do that in a class with a TA before.

End of Welcome Week and Beginning of Classes

Welcome Week is now over; I am excited for classes starting tomorrow (or really, today, as it is past midnight)! I have only one class today, on the Early Middle Ages (300-1050 AD), which should be fun. The last two and a half days of Welcome Week went by much much better than the 3 days or so before that. Today (technically yesterday) I went to Central Park with my Christian fellowship here at NYU, and I was given two surprise birthday cakes, one from people in the fellowship, and one from a suitemate! That is excellent, especially after being quite lonely for a couple days earlier last week.

As far as Go goes, I managed to break the losing streak, but haven't played much- I seem to become tired after just a single game now. This will probably change once school starts- I've always played the most on weekends of weeks with school.

And now, I will post about my grades, specifically, comparing my grades last year with those from high school. I found my quarter and exam grades for the first 3.5 years of high school in an email I wrote a year and a half ago (along with some very long walls of text I wrote, including an impromptu analysis in chat of the symbolism in Final Fantasy X- remember that, Dan?). Unfortunately, I am having difficulty remembering my grades from second semester senior year, but I remember enough to make a (fairly accurate) guess. So, here is listed my unweighted GPA for each year since 9th grade (NYU doesn't have the A+ grade, so for this comparison I counted both A and A+ grades in HS as 4.0):

9th Grade: 3.53
10th Grade: 3.49
11th Grade: 3.62
12th Grade: 3.67
High School Total: 3.58

College Year 1: 3.625

Just for fun, here is my college GPA without math: 3.83.....

Anyway, this shows a very nice upward trend for me: my grades improved as I took harder classes (no APs in 9th/10th grades, 2 in 11th, 4 in 12th, and 8 real college classes last year). I'm don't know what percentile 3.625 is, but I'd guess it's somewhere between top 10th and 20th for rising sophomores. Since most kids here were in the top 10% in high school, that comes out to the equivalent of top 2% or so in HS- a large improvement for me. Of course, this is a very imprecise measure.